11:03 am - April 23, 2025
As TikTok grapples with potential bans and regulatory scrutiny in the US, its advertising revenue growth may be at risk.
TikTok’s advertising revenue is poised to exceed $30 billion this year, with nearly $12 billion of that total at risk if it is banned from operating in the United States.
The platform, owned by ByteDance, has been rapidly evolving its role in the advertising landscape, demonstrating effectiveness from consumer discovery to purchase.
WARC Media’s latest Platform Insights report provides critical data regarding TikTok’s forecasting and performance. The report estimates that if TikTok’s operations continue unimpeded in the US, its ad revenue there is projected to reach $11.8 billion in 2025, marking a 21% increase. This growth trajectory positions TikTok to surpass both Facebook and Instagram in terms of ad revenue growth this year. Assuming no interventions occur, TikTok’s ad revenue could escalate to $32.4 billion globally, giving it an 11% market share in the competitive social media space.
Although the US remains TikTok’s largest market, its share of total ad revenue is predicted to decline from 43.3% in 2022 to 34.0% by 2026. This shift suggests that growth in markets outside the US may help to cushion any adverse effects resulting from a potential ban. In contrast, Instagram, YouTube, and Snapchat are anticipated to benefit from a disruption in TikTok’s operations, with advertisers potentially reallocating spend towards these platforms.
On 18 January, the app was inaccessible for over 12 hours in the US because of national security regulations. President Donald Trump intervened and extended a deadline for resolving the issue to 5 April.
TikTok’s user engagement metrics are notably robust. Globally, users spend an average of 35 hours per month on the app, with US users engaging for nearly 44 hours monthly — more than double the average time spent by Instagram users. The app boasts an advertising reach of 1.59 billion users and is particularly popular among women aged 16-24.
As advertisers assess the effectiveness of TikTok’s platform, they remain cautiously optimistic, noting its recent popularity in Kantar’s Media Reactions study, which shows it shares the top spot with Amazon as consumers’ preferred advertising platform. Key to this engagement is the role of creative quality and the effectiveness of campaigns, with TikTok emphasising the significance of high-quality branded content in collaboration with creators to drive performance metrics such as view-through rates and ad recall.
As TikTok continues to navigate regulatory challenges and evolving advertiser perspectives, its potential to reshape the landscape of digital marketing and consumer behaviour remains significant.
Source: Noah Wire Services
- https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/tiktok-us-revenue – This URL supports the claim about TikTok’s US revenue growth, highlighting its increasing ad revenue and market presence in the US. It also provides data on TikTok’s revenue projections for future years.
- https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/tiktok-ad-revenue – This URL provides insights into TikTok’s global ad revenue projections, including its growth trajectory and market share in the social media advertising space. It also details the industries leading TikTok’s ad spending.
- https://www.businessofapps.com/data/tik-tok-statistics/ – This URL offers statistics on TikTok’s overall revenue, user base, and growth trends. It highlights TikTok’s rapid expansion and its position as a major player in the social media landscape.
- https://www.noahwire.com – This URL is the source article discussing TikTok’s advertising potential, regulatory challenges, and its impact on consumer behavior. It provides context for the platform’s role in digital marketing.
- https://www.warc.com – WARC Media’s platform insights report is mentioned as a source for data on TikTok’s advertising performance and growth projections. However, the exact URL for the report is not provided.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative references recent events and projections for 2025, indicating it is relatively current. However, it mentions President Donald Trump, who is no longer in office, which might suggest some recycled information.
Quotes check
Score:
6
Notes:
The quote from Alex Brownsell is attributed to a report but lacks an earliest known online reference. This makes it difficult to verify if it’s an original quote or previously used.
Source reliability
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative originates from European Business Magazine, which is not as widely recognized as major publications like the Financial Times or BBC. However, it provides specific data and references reputable reports.
Plausability check
Score:
9
Notes:
The claims about TikTok’s ad revenue growth and user engagement are plausible and align with trends in the digital marketing landscape. The regulatory uncertainty in the US adds complexity but is consistent with current geopolitical tensions.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): OPEN
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The narrative is generally plausible and current, but its reliability is somewhat diminished by the lack of verification for the quote and the source’s lesser recognition. The freshness is good, but references to past political figures could indicate some outdated elements.
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