Research and forecast notes
Yahoo signs a collective AI licence. Now follow the royalties
By Ivan Massow | 14 November 2026

The article distinguishes announced licences, operator-reported implementation and payments, economic models, editorial analysis and forecast probabilities. Primary sources independently checked and retained privately. PLS figures are operator reports, not independently audited receipts. ILC supporter listings do not establish Yahoo opt-in. Public framework pages do not establish what members can inspect privately. The £100,000 pool and 1% share are a hypothetical example, not a tariff.

Quotation 1: Doug Leeds, ILC co-founder, told Sara Guaglione in Digiday on 12 November 2026: “a song is a song is a song, and content is very different”. Continuous exact excerpt; no Tomorrow's Publisher interview implied.
Quotation 2: Mather report authors Matt Lindsay, Nathan Hart and Benji Stalvey, The Price of Intelligence, November 2026, footnote 4: “does not imply that any particular AI firm has agreed to specific license terms”. The 15%-35% estimate is conditional economic willingness to pay, not a deal rate, forecast probability or realised revenue.

Noah research method
One saved trend-report programme commissioned on 14 November 2026 with its normal automatic quick forecasts. Its full original protected packets and complete final forecast results are retained privately. Archive retrieval counts and broad proxy matches are not treated as subject trends, sentiment, public opinion or event odds. A single bounded six-lane post-draft pass did not establish actual named-title participation or cash receipts. Primary operating documents and economic model form the factual basis of the article.

Automatic forecast stage: three authenticated final probabilities; two targets unavailable with exact reason native_forecast_estimator_abstained. No substitute forecasts commissioned. The article selects the actual six-month cash-distribution event. The other valid forecasts concern a single authorised answer and publication of operative terms; they do not establish dependable income. Private intermediate host estimates are not Noah forecasts and are not published.

Contract distinctions
Cash receipt is an actual event, not publication of evidence. Missing public disclosure alone cannot establish nonpayment. A single cash recipient in any named group suffices; accrued but unpaid royalties and unrelated advances do not. The authorised-answer event requires Yahoo's ILC licence, not links or separate direct deals. The allocation-rules event requires a new public operative publication covering allocation, recipient statements and audit or challenge rights; its NO outcome would not show absent private protections, absent payments or failed accounting. Exact supplied target details follow. Complete returned rationales and receipts are retained in the private claim audit. All dates and final odds are unchanged.

Complete automatic forecast register
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  {
    "slug": "supporter_royalties_20270514",
    "status": "ready",
    "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and 2027-05-14, will at least one publisher in the Guardian, Future, Newsquest or Mediahuis groups receive a cash royalty distribution attributable specifically to Yahoo's ILC licence?",
    "yes_probability_pct": 53,
    "uncertainty_interval_pct": [
      25,
      78
    ],
    "resolution_date": "2027-05-14",
    "contract": {
      "contract": "forecast_target_contract.v1",
      "host_constructed_target": true,
      "kind": "binary_event",
      "no_pays_on": "No publisher in the named groups receives a qualifying distribution between 2026-11-15 and 2027-05-14. Missing public disclosure alone does not establish nonpayment.",
      "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and 2027-05-14, will at least one publisher in the Guardian, Future, Newsquest or Mediahuis groups receive a cash royalty distribution attributable specifically to Yahoo's ILC licence?",
      "resolution_date": "2027-05-14",
      "yes_pays_on": "A publisher in at least one named group receives such a distribution between 2026-11-15 and 2027-05-14. Advances unrelated to allocated Yahoo licence revenue, supporter listings and accrued but unpaid royalties do not count."
    },
    "timeline": {
      "contract": "trend_forecast_timeline.v1",
      "horizon_reason": "Six months tests initial collection and distribution; twelve months allows a fuller accounting cycle and distinguishes delayed payment from announcement-only economics.",
      "no_pays_on": "No publisher in the named groups receives a qualifying distribution between 2026-11-15 and {date}. Missing public disclosure alone does not establish nonpayment.",
      "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and {date}, will at least one publisher in the Guardian, Future, Newsquest or Mediahuis groups receive a cash royalty distribution attributable specifically to Yahoo's ILC licence?",
      "resolution_dates": [
        "2027-05-14",
        "2027-11-14"
      ],
      "temporal_mode": "achieved_by",
      "timeline_id": "02bbe5ce65a5e5962f89fd9f83ac051d82998da0c097e4f413d46db58b28d18f",
      "yes_pays_on": "A publisher in at least one named group receives such a distribution between 2026-11-15 and {date}. Advances unrelated to allocated Yahoo licence revenue, supporter listings and accrued but unpaid royalties do not count."
    },
    "run_reference": "fd1213e17800a6fc76783f31cb922c23fff044c49b91a66d2ac964d2bb39946d",
    "selected": true
  },
  {
    "slug": "supporter_royalties_20271114",
    "status": "unavailable",
    "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and 2027-11-14, will at least one publisher in the Guardian, Future, Newsquest or Mediahuis groups receive a cash royalty distribution attributable specifically to Yahoo's ILC licence?",
    "resolution_date": "2027-11-14",
    "contract": null,
    "timeline": {
      "contract": "trend_forecast_timeline.v1",
      "horizon_reason": "Six months tests initial collection and distribution; twelve months allows a fuller accounting cycle and distinguishes delayed payment from announcement-only economics.",
      "no_pays_on": "No publisher in the named groups receives a qualifying distribution between 2026-11-15 and {date}. Missing public disclosure alone does not establish nonpayment.",
      "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and {date}, will at least one publisher in the Guardian, Future, Newsquest or Mediahuis groups receive a cash royalty distribution attributable specifically to Yahoo's ILC licence?",
      "resolution_dates": [
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      "yes_pays_on": "A publisher in at least one named group receives such a distribution between 2026-11-15 and {date}. Advances unrelated to allocated Yahoo licence revenue, supporter listings and accrued but unpaid royalties do not count."
    },
    "failure_reason": "native_forecast_estimator_abstained",
    "selected": false
  },
  {
    "slug": "yahoo_authorised_use",
    "status": "ready",
    "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and 2027-11-14, will Yahoo Scout serve a user-facing answer using content from at least one Guardian, Future, Newsquest or Mediahuis title under that publisher's authorisation through Yahoo's ILC licence?",
    "yes_probability_pct": 72,
    "uncertainty_interval_pct": [
      49,
      90
    ],
    "resolution_date": "2027-11-14",
    "contract": {
      "contract": "forecast_target_contract.v1",
      "host_constructed_target": true,
      "kind": "binary_event",
      "no_pays_on": "No qualifying authorised use occurs between 2026-11-15 and 2027-11-14. A supporter logo or absence of a public demonstration does not establish either participation or nonparticipation.",
      "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and 2027-11-14, will Yahoo Scout serve a user-facing answer using content from at least one Guardian, Future, Newsquest or Mediahuis title under that publisher's authorisation through Yahoo's ILC licence?",
      "resolution_date": "2027-11-14",
      "yes_pays_on": "A qualifying authorised use occurs between 2026-11-15 and 2027-11-14. The content must be covered by Yahoo's ILC licence; ordinary web crawling, links alone and separate direct licences do not count."
    },
    "timeline": null,
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    "selected": false
  },
  {
    "slug": "allocation_rules",
    "status": "ready",
    "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and 2027-05-14, will the ILC publish operative publisher terms for Yahoo-derived royalties that specify the allocation method, recipient reporting detail and publisher audit or challenge rights?",
    "yes_probability_pct": 54,
    "uncertainty_interval_pct": [
      30,
      75
    ],
    "resolution_date": "2027-05-14",
    "contract": {
      "contract": "forecast_target_contract.v1",
      "host_constructed_target": true,
      "kind": "binary_event",
      "no_pays_on": "By 2027-05-14, no qualifying publication has occurred since 2026-11-14. Private terms or generic promises of fair distribution do not satisfy this public-transparency target.",
      "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and 2027-05-14, will the ILC publish operative publisher terms for Yahoo-derived royalties that specify the allocation method, recipient reporting detail and publisher audit or challenge rights?",
      "resolution_date": "2027-05-14",
      "yes_pays_on": "By 2027-05-14, the ILC has published, after 2026-11-14, terms applicable to Yahoo-derived distributions that explain how publisher shares are calculated, what recipient statements contain, and what audit or allocation-challenge rights recipients have. Aspirational framework commitments alone do not count."
    },
    "timeline": null,
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    "selected": false
  },
  {
    "slug": "second_buyer_delivery",
    "status": "unavailable",
    "question": "Between 2026-11-15 and 2027-11-14, will an AI product operator other than Yahoo begin serving user-facing AI outputs using publisher content authorised under a paid ILC collective licence?",
    "resolution_date": "2027-11-14",
    "contract": null,
    "timeline": null,
    "failure_reason": "native_forecast_estimator_abstained",
    "selected": false
  }
]

Sources
ILC launch announcement, 12 November 2026 (issuer press release)
https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/internet-licensing-collective-ilc-launches-140000124.html

Sara Guaglione interviews Doug Leeds, Digiday, 12 November 2026
https://digiday.com/media/yahoo-becomes-first-licensee-of-spotify-like-collective-ai-content-licensing-model/

Yahoo Search and Scout availability announcement, 10 November 2026
https://www.yahooinc.com/press/after-delivering-more-than-3-billion-answers-yahoo-scout-exits-beta-to-underpin-all-of-yahoo-search

Internet Licensing Collective supporter list
https://internetcollective.org/

ILC publisher participation and licence controls
https://internetcollective.org/publishers

ILC public allocation framework
https://internetcollective.org/license

Mather Economics: The Price of Intelligence, November 2026 (original PDF)
https://www.mathereconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/Mather-Economics-The-Price-of-Intelligence-November-2026.pdf

ILC platform: content access and reporting
https://internetcollective.org/platform

ILC publisher onboarding guide, updated 17 October 2026
https://internetcollective.org/docs/publishers/onboard

ILC frequently asked questions: usage reporting and payments
https://internetcollective.org/faq

PLS chief executive Tom West’s autumn update: product and workplace AI licensing
https://pls.org.uk/news-events-policy/news/update-on-ai-licensing-from-pls-ceo-tom-west/